Americans, Canadians, and Mexicans Want to Continue the USMCA but Differ on Terms

Majorities in USMCA publics believe the 2020 trilateral free trade agreement has been beneficial to their economies, but Mexicans and Canadians are reticent about how much their governments should acquiesce to US demands.

The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)1 is up for its first joint review. Negotiated during US President Donald Trump’s first term, the USMCA replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) implemented in 1994. Now, the three governments must decide whether they want to renew the USMCA for a 16-year period. 

The outcome is uncertain. The Trump administration’s tariff policy has thrown a wrench into the previous trade regime; Mexico’s government is pressed between US expectations to deliver on security improvements and domestic pressures for reform; and Canada is trying to rebalance its international relations away from the United States and closer to Europe and China in response to US political and economic threats. If there is no consensus between the three governments by the July 1 deadline, yearly reviews will take place over the next decade. 

Despite the tense atmosphere, surveys fielded by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Buendia y Marquez, and Nanos Research between May 29 and June 2, 2026, show American, Canadian, and Mexican publics believe the trilateral trade pact has been beneficial to their own economies and large majorities would like the agreement to stay in force, even if the terms are tweaked. 

Key Findings 

• Nearly nine in 10 Americans, Mexicans, and Canadians say relations with their North American counterparts are important to their respective economies.
• Large majorities (73% Mexico, 78% United States, 81% Canada) think the USMCA is good for their economy.
• Relatively few across all three publics think their country should leave the agreement altogether (20% at most).
• More Americans (51%) and Canadians (52%) think their countries should remain in the agreement under the current terms, while more Mexicans think their government should do whatever is necessary to renegotiate new terms (50%).
• A solid majority of Americans would prefer that their leaders improve relations with Canada and Mexico, even if it means making trade and economic concessions (73%). Nearly as many Canadians prefer their leaders resist compromising, even at the risk of worsening relations with the United States (69%).
• Mexicans are more divided. A slight plurality say their leaders should seek improved relations with the United States, even if means compromise on Mexico’s part (49%). However, a significant 43 percent prefer their leaders to resist US pressure to make concessions. 

USMCA Publics View Each Partner as Important to Individual Economies

The USMCA underpins $2 trillion in yearly intraregional trade. While the Trump administration’s “America First” trade policies—particularly its Liberation Day tariffs—upended the global economy, an estimated 85 percent of Canadian and Mexican exports continued to enjoy tariff-free access to the US market because of the USMCA. Today, nearly nine in 10 people in all three countries say the other North American countries are at least somewhat important to their own country’s economy, and about half of each public says each country is very important.

However, sectorial tariffs of up to 50 percent levied by the United States on products such as steel and aluminum have had a significant negative impact on manufacturers in both Mexico and Canada. And despite Trump’s efforts to restrict Chinese exports, China has remained economically important to each USMCA country, with roughly half in Mexico (47%) and the United States (52%) saying China is very important to their national economies and four in 10 in Canada saying the same (37%). Most Canadians also view the European Union as very economically important (65%)—echoing Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent diversification efforts.

Majority Support Across All Three Countries for USMCA Trade Agreement 

Reflecting mutual appreciation for the trilateral relationship, at least seven in 10 in Mexico (73%), the United States (78%), and Canada (81%) consider the USMCA good for their respective economies.

In the United States, Democrats are the most enthusiastic advocates for the trade agreement (89%), though Republicans and Independents offer solid support as well (74% among both). 

In Mexico, more than two-thirds across all partisan affiliations think the agreement is good for the Mexican economy, but supporters of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s Morena coalition are the most likely to think so (76%). 

While the Nanos dataset did not include a political affiliation variable, a March 2026 Abacus survey found that supporters of the Conservative Party of Canada were more likely to say the termination of the agreement would be bad for Canada, while Carney’s Liberal Party supporters were more likely to say it would make little difference. 

USMCA Support Holds Steady in United States and Mexico 

American public support for a trilateral trade deal has increased considerably over the past 22 years—most recently driven by an uptick in positive views among Republicans.

When the Chicago Council first asked Americans about NAFTA in 2004, Democrats and Republicans were largely aligned, with just 42 percent overall characterizing the trade agreement as good for the US economy. 

Between 2008 and 2013, Republicans and Democrats began to diverge. By 2017, just 34 percent of Republicans saw NAFTA as good for the US economy, compared to 72 percent of Democrats. The year after the USMCA was signed, however, Republican support soared to 86 percent and Democratic support dropped to 59 percent. 

Democratic support for the agreement has since rebounded, with positive overall sentiment toward the USMCA reaching a height of 80 percent in 2021, and has remained solid.2

Mexicans have also grown to see a trilateral trade agreement more positively. Buendia y Marquez polling showed that in 2004, just 44 percent of Mexicans thought NAFTA was good for the Mexican economy. By 2019, three-quarters said the USMCA agreement was good for their national economy. At 73 percent today, this positive view has slightly declined but remains substantial.

While this exact question was not asked in Canada, a February 2026 survey conducted by Nanos Research for the Business Council of Canada found that eight in 10 Canadians believe that Canada’s trade agreements with the United States and Mexico have had a positive effect on the Canadian economy (81%, with 42% very positive) and Canadians’ well-being in terms of jobs and affordability (79%, with 37% very positive).

US and Mexican Publics Tend to Think Free Trade Agreements are Beneficial 

When it comes to free trade agreements in general, most Mexicans and Americans see them as having helped their economies. Fifty-six percent of Americans think they have helped the United States, while 26 percent think they have hurt (26%) and 15 percent think they have made no difference. By a similar margin, Mexicans also tend to think free trade agreements have helped Mexico (50% vs. 12% hurt), but a substantial share think they have not made a much of a difference (35%). 

Majorities Want to Remain in USMCA in Current Form or with Changes

While Trump has been noncommittal on whether he would renew the USMCA when it comes up for review and has characterized the trade deal as a burden to the United States, these new data reveal most Americans prefer to remain a participant in the trilateral agreement—either in its current form (51%) or under renegotiated terms (36%). 

Most Canadians also want Ottawa to remain a member of the agreement under the current terms (52%) or in a renegotiated form (24%), despite polling showing that Canadian opinion of the United States has recently reached some historic lows,

Mexican opinion of the United States hit its most unfavorable point (69% unfavorable) in 2025, according to Pew Research—the highest registered among Mexicans in their polling since 2002. Yet Mexicans also endorse staying in the USMCA, though they differ somewhat from the other North American publics on the terms. A plurality prefer that Mexico do whatever is necessary to renegotiate the terms of the USMCA (50%), while 19 percent say it should continue under the current format. 

Mexicans are also more likely than their North American counterparts to think their country should do whatever is necessary to leave the USMCA (20% vs. 8% Americans and 7% Canadians). 

Mexicans’ desires to renegotiate the terms of the USMCA or leave the agreement entirely may partly reflect the Trump administration’s recent policies toward Mexico, particularly tariffs. Joint Chicago Council-Buendia y Marquez polling conducted in 2019 during the USMCA negotiation found that Mexicans were far more concerned about a potential trade war (86%) than Americans (52%). And 2026 data show that solid majorities of two-thirds or more in Mexico think US tariffs against their country have hurt their household costs (74%), economy (69%), and jobs (63%). 

Majority in Canada and Many in Mexico Want to Resist Concessions 

When it comes down to making a deal, Americans are much more inclined than the other two publics to compromise. Three-quarters of Americans prefer that US leaders seek to improve relations with Mexico and Canada, even if it means making concessions on trade and economic issues (73%). 

Mexicans are more closely divided, though a slight plurality would like their leaders to improve relations with the United States (49%). Still, nearly as many would prefer to resist compromise—even at the expense of relations with the United States (43%).

Canadians stand out most in their reticence to compromise, with seven in 10 thinking their leaders should resist making concessions on trade and economic issues, even at the risk of worsening relations with the United States (69%). This number mirrors the sharply negative turn last year in Canadian attitudes towards the United States. 

Conclusion 

Mexico and Canada have formally communicated their preference for a 16-year renewal of the USMCA. While the official US stance is not yet known, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has stated that there will be no rubberstamp extension. If there is no consensus between the three governments by the July 1 deadline, the agreement will remain in place until 2036 with annual reviews. While those reviews represent opportunities to update the agreement, they could potentially inject increased uncertainty into the market, rolling back gains from agricultural and industrial integration. 

Overall, the American, Canadian, and Mexican publics see relationships with their North American counterparts as important to their economies. But while a solid majority of Americans support taking steps to improve North American relations, a majority of Canadians and a significant minority of Mexicans are willing to risk worsening relations with the United States if it means their countries avoid making concessions on trade and economic issues. These responses likely reflect public reactions to US policies that extend beyond trade.

Still, recent polling conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Buendia y Marquez, and Nanos Research shows that all three publics want to maintain free trade and continue under the USMCA, whether in its current or modified form.

• 1

  This report uses the USMCA acronym since that is what the trade agreement is referred to in the United States, though in Canada it is referred to as CUSMA in Canada (Canada-US-Mexico Agreement) and in Mexico as T-MEC (Tratado entre México, Estados Unidos y Canadá).

• 2

  Chicago Council analysis shows the agreement received a “Trump bump” when it was officially renegotiated in 2018 and took effect in 2020. Republican support jumped from 44 percent in July 2018 saying NAFTA is good for the US economy to a whopping 86 percent in 2019. Independent support also increased during that same time period (from 44% to 71%). Democrats initially lost faith when the agreement transitioned from NAFTA to USMCA. Between 2018 and 2019, the percentage of Democrats saying NAFTA/USMCA was good for the US economy dropped from 79 percent to 59 percent%. But since then, Democratic support for the agreement has been at record-high levels (see Appendix).