"Military morale, alliances, and Washington’s global standing are all at stake in how Trump navigates the bind," Council Lester Crown Senior Nonresident Fellow Suzanne Nossel writes.
"Europe is clearly not happy. It's not a war that they were consulted about. It's not a war that they've chosen," says Council President and CEO Leslie Vinjamuri.
"Taking negotiations public is like setting sail in a squall: You’re betting you can harness the popular and geopolitical winds to make way, rather than get blown off course," Council Lester Crown Senior Nonresident Fellow Suzanne Nossel writes.
A US oil blockade has brought Cuba to the negotiating table. That gives Washington an “extraordinary opportunity” to influence the island’s trajectory and its relationship with the United States. Will Trump’s power play get in the way?
"It really puts Europe in a difficult position. On the one hand, they're frustrated that they've been left out in the cold for this entire operation," says Council Distinguished Nonresident Fellow Julianne Smith. "On the other hand, . . . they're also recognizing that they need the strait to be open."
Robert Pape joins the 2026 cohort of Emerging Leaders to examine the tradeoffs inherent in deploying force and explore the limits of military power in shaping political outcomes.
The US-led postwar international order is being tested in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz and in the shrewd calculations of governments from New Delhi to Helsinki.
"The conditions that typically produce short wars—a decisive military advantage, an adversary willing to negotiate, and a clear political end game—are conspicuously absent in this conflict," Council Senior Nonresident Fellow Paul Poast and Pegah Banihashemi write.
