Americans, Foreign Policy, and the 2026 Midterms

Results and analysis of the Council's 2026 annual survey of American views on foreign policy.

Americans are approaching the midterm elections on November 3 after 20 months of dizzying policy actions both at home and abroad since President Donald Trump took office for the second time. His administration has enacted sweeping changes to US immigration policies as well as cuts to government agencies, food assistance, and myriad other domestic programs. On the foreign policy side, the administration has combined economic pressure—higher tariffs against trading partners, reduced foreign aid, and demands for increased defense spending from US allies—with substantial military action abroad, most prominently in Iran.  

On the surface, Americans rate foreign policy issues a lower priority in the runup to midterm voting than inflation and cost-of-living concerns. But the 2026 Chicago Council Survey, fielded July 10–21, 2026, finds that most Americans believe the Trump administration’s foreign policy actions have negatively impacted America’s global standing and hurt national and household economic conditions. The direct link perceived by the public between their household finances, the Iran war, and Trump’s tariff regime helps elevate foreign policy issues for everyday Americans.  

Americans Link Iran War and Tariffs to Higher Costs of Living at Home  

Economic issues are front of mind for many Americans heading to the polls this November, and most people think their political leaders have not been paying enough attention to critical pocketbook issues. Pluralities across the political spectrum say inflation and the cost of living are most important to their votes (37% overall), followed by government corruption (19%) and control of Congress (19%).  

Few Americans name the US-Iran war as their most important voting issue (2%), yet the war is a factor that has shaped the economic anxieties taking center stage in midterm decisions. And Americans seem well aware of the linkages between the two. According to Council polling, Americans broadly view the US-Iran war as bad for the cost of living in the country (86%), as well as the United States’ international relations (72%), reputation abroad (72%), and national security (65%).   

It’s not just the Iran war that Americans associate with domestic problems. The second Trump administration’s widespread tariffs are also deeply unpopular. In Chicago Council polls this year, large majorities of Americans have said that US tariffs on imports have been bad for the US economy (71%) and the cost of living at home (81%). Even Republican Party supporters think the tariffs have been bad for the cost of living (62%), along with overwhelming majorities of Democrats (94%) and Independents (86%). At the same time, Republicans say tariffs have been good for job creation (64%) and for the US economy (56%), especially those who identify with the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement (79% good for employment and 71% good for economy).  

The public also believes the tariffs placed on imports specifically from China have negatively impacted the cost of living in the United States (76%) and the US economy (66%). And over the past two years, Americans have grown more supportive of pursuing cooperation with Beijing (57%, up from 40% in 2024) rather than actively limiting the growth of China’s power. 

Most Say Iran War Not Worth the Costs  

When weighing the costs of the Iran war against the benefits, the majority of Americans think the war has not been worth fighting (68% vs. 31% worth fighting). Republicans alone express majority support for the war (63% say it is worth fighting). In sharp contrast, nine in 10 Democrats (91%) and three in four Independents (76%) believe it has not been worth the costs.  

Aside from its negative economic impacts, the US war with Iran has not been viewed as a success on wider dimensions. Most Americans believe the war has negatively affected the United States’ relationship with allies (72%), the country’s reputation abroad (72%), and US national security (65%). A majority do, however, think US military action has degraded Iran’s position in the Middle East (76%).  

US Support for Israel Shaping Up to Be an Electoral Issue    

Recent primary elections in key US states have helped to illuminate cracks in American support for Israel. When asked to rate their feelings toward Israel on a thermometer scale (where 100 is the warmest possible feeling), Americans provide an average rating of 44 out of 100, an all-time low in Chicago Council Surveys.  

Favorable views have declined among Republicans (from 69 in 2022 to 62 today) and Independents (from 56 to 41). But attitudes have particularly sunk among self-described Democrats (from 52 in 2022 to just 30 today). Some of these declines are likely related to Israel’s role in the Iran war, but the drop began earlier during Israeli military action in Gaza following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks.  

In fact, a combined 56 percent of Americans now favor reducing (21%) or eliminating (35%) US military aid to Israel, an increase from just a third who said the same in 2014 (37%). This is also a sharply partisan issue. While Democrats (72%) and Independents (64%) think US military aid to Israel should be decreased or stopped altogether, Republicans continue to favor maintaining or increasing this support (68%).  

Republicans Favor Increased Immigration Enforcement; Democrats Oppose Such Increases  

The Trump administration came in especially focused on immigration policies, claiming it would execute the largest mass-deportation program in US history by granting wide operational authority to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). It also created new barriers to legal immigration, even attempting to revoke birthright citizenship as a constitutional right.    

Compared to public opinion in advance of the 2024 presidential election, far fewer Americans consider immigration a critical threat to the country (35%, down from 50% in 2024). Today, just 29 percent of Independents and a record-low 10 percent of Democrats view large-scale migration as a threat. Yet Republicans still consider immigration the top threat facing the country (67% critical threat, tied with 68% who name the Iran war), consistent with their opinion over the past three decades.  

Reflecting this difference, Republicans and Democrats diverge sharply on federal immigration enforcement funding. Two-thirds of Democrats (68%) favor cutting the immigration enforcement budget, as do a plurality of Independents (44%)—but just 7 percent of Republicans agree. Instead, six in 10 Republicans (61%) favor expanding federal spending on immigration enforcement (vs. 23% of Independents and 10% of Democrats).  

Despite the Chaos, Majorities Still Want to Engage with the World    

Overall, six in 10 Americans continue to say the United States should play an active part in world affairs (58%), similar to views over the last four years. But there have been some partisan shifts. For the first time since 2012, GOP supporters are equally likely as Democrats to favor an active US global role. This increase among Republicans (63%, up from 59% in 2025) and decrease among Democrats (60%, down from 67%)—with Independents (52%) staying consistent—most likely reflect partisan assessments of the Trump administration and its policies.  

Beyond diverging views toward the administration’s specific policies on Iran, trade, and immigration, there are also some clear differences in how Republicans and Democrats would like the United States to operate on the world stage. Two-thirds of Americans (65%)—including 79 percent of Democrats and 67 percent of Independents—prefer the United States share global leadership with other countries. But Republicans are nearly as likely to say the United States should share leadership (49%) as say it should be the dominant leader (45%), reflecting a significant unilateralist trend among these partisans.  

Conclusion 

It is usually difficult for policymakers and political leaders to tangibly demonstrate to everyday citizens how foreign policy impacts their daily lives. Former US President Joe Biden even attempted a strategy to do just that with his administration’s “Foreign Policy for the Middle Class.” When foreign policy is working in a way that improves, or at least stabilizes, households’ standard of living, Americans often don’t see behind the scenes. For example, some might not consider how trade relationships could help maintain or lower costs for consumer goods and fuel prices or how the tenor of US relations with allies could affect US national and international security.  

By upending some of this stability, the Trump administration’s policies may have brought this connection into sharper focus. Most Americans think the administration’s current economic and military decisions have put the country in a worse place. Majorities also believe the war with Iran has hurt US relations with allies, the US global reputation, and US national security. And many Americans seem to think the United States has lost some of its soft power: They would prefer that their country be admired by the rest of the world, but instead more say the United States is currently more feared than admired.  

While most Americans across party lines oppose withdrawing from global involvement and want the United States to actively participate, an active role in the world means different things to different groups of Americans. For example, partisans diverge on whether it is best for the United States to share global leadership or play a dominant leadership role. Similarly, the public views international trade as good for the United States, but many also favor some protectionist policies to safeguard US jobs. And on immigration, there are enormous partisan divisions on how great a threat it poses and whether Trump’s policies have gone too far.  

In short, the differences among Americans’ US foreign policy preferences seem to be linked to the perceived costs and consequences of various approaches to US foreign policy. With economic factors weighing heavily on midterms voters’ minds, these tradeoffs are inextricably linked to many of the country’s foreign policy decisions over the past year, particularly US tariff policy and the war in Iran. 

Read the full report.