2008 Chicago Council Survey

The 2008 Chicago Council Survey offers an important benchmark for popular attitudes about foreign policy immediately prior to the triggering of the international financial crisis in the fall of 2008.

Anxious Americans Seek a New Direction in United States Foreign Policy

Introduction

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs 2008 Global Views survey is the latest edition in a long- running study, conducted every four years since 1975 and biennially since 2002. Recent iterations have devoted considerable attention to international views of U.S. foreign policy and world affairs. This year, given the extraordinary challenges that the United States faces and the opportunities that the presidential election presented, The Chicago Council returned to the study’s roots and refocused its attention on American attitudes exclusively. The poll, conducted in July 2008, offers an important benchmark for popular attitudes about foreign policy immediately prior to the triggering of the inter- national financial crisis in the fall of 2008. After the sharp economic downturn in September, the Council conducted a short follow-up poll focused on American attitudes towards trade and globalization as they related to the domestic economy. The same anxieties toward globalization evident in the July survey were also present in September with almost no change in intensity. 

Key Findings 

Part I: Foreign Policy 

The survey conducted in July of 2008 reveals an American public concerned about U.S. standing in the world and supportive of a series of targeted changes in foreign policy to address perceived problems. While the changes appear more pragmatic than ideological, they add up to a strong shift in direction, with an emphasis on using diplomacy and working through multilateral institutions to tackle problems, even while keeping a strong military presence worldwide. 

Overall 

• An exceptional bipartisan majority of Americans think that improving America’s standing in the world should be a “very important” foreign pol- icy goal of the United States (see Appendix B for a detailed analysis of all fourteen foreign policy goals asked about in the study). 
• A slight majority conclude that the ability of the United States to achieve its foreign policy goals has decreased. 
• Republicans are more likely than Democrats to believe that the ability of the United States to achieve its foreign policy goals has stayed the same. 
• Most Americans believe the United States is playing the role of world policeman more than it should be. 
• A strong majority of Americans want the United States to play an active part in world affairs. However, a record 36 percent think the United States should stay out of world affairs, up 8 points since 2006 and the highest percentage since pollsters began asking this question in 1947. 

Diplomacy 

• Bipartisan majorities of Americans endorse U.S. leaders talking with the leaders of hostile or unfriendly countries, including Cuba, North Korea, Iran, and Burma. 
• Slight majorities of Americans also support talks with Hamas and Hezbollah, although majorities of Republicans do not. 

Iran 

• Three-quarters of Americans favor applying diplomatic or economic pressure to Iran. 
• A slight majority believes that if Iran were to allow United Nations inspectors permanent and full access throughout Iran to make sure it is not developing nuclear weapons, the country should be allowed to produce nuclear fuel for producing electricity. 

Iraq 

• Sixty-one percent of Americans expect there would be increased violence and greater instability over the next several years if the United States pulled most of its combat troops from the country; 28 percent believe pulling troops out would have no effect on stability and the levels of violence; and only 11 percent believe there would be decreased violence and increased stability. Sixty-seven percent say the United States should withdraw most of its combat troops “right away” or within “two years.” 
• A majority of Americans now support long-term U.S. military bases in Iraq. 
• Three-quarters agree that the war cost hundreds of billions of dollars that could have been spent on needs at home, although there is near unanimity among Democrats and only a slight majority among Republicans on this issue. 
• A majority overall says the threat of terrorism has not been reduced by the war, though two-thirds of Republicans think it has been. 

Terrorism 

• Exceptional majorities favor working through the UN to strengthen international laws against terrorism and support the trial of suspected terrorists in the International Criminal Court. 
• Seventy percent of Americans still consider inter- national terrorism a critical threat, down from 74 percent in 2006 and 75 percent in 2004 (see Appendix C for a detailed analysis of all twelve threats asked about in the study). 
• Strong majorities favor the following measures to fight terrorism: U.S. air strikes against terrorist training camps and other facilities, assassination of individual terrorist leaders, attacks by U.S. ground troops against terrorist training camps and other facilities, helping poor countries develop their economies, and making a major effort to be even-handed in the Israeli- Palestinian conflict. 
• A majority of the public opposes using torture to extract information from suspected terrorists. 

Pakistan 

• Slightly more than two-thirds say the United States “should” take military action to capture or kill high-ranking members of terrorist groups operating in Pakistan that threaten the United States, even if the government of Pakistan does not give the United States permission to do so. 
• Only slightly more than one-third say the United States should use military force to secure Pakistan’s nuclear weapons “even without UN approval” if its government fell into the hands of Islamic extremists. 

Religion and Diplomacy 

• A majority of Americans believe it is possible to find common ground between Muslims and Christians, although a considerable minority thinks violent conflict between the two is inevitable. 
• A strong majority of Americans oppose the U.S. government funding humanitarian work under- taken by Muslim organizations in developing countries. Yet majorities favor the U.S. government funding humanitarian work undertaken by Christian and interfaith organizations. 
• A majority thinks religious values and institutions should be openly discussed by U.S. government leaders as part of international diplomatic efforts. 

Treaties 

• Strong majorities support U.S. participation in inter- national treaties and agreements, including a treaty that bans nuclear weapon test explosions world- wide, a new international treaty to address climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and an agreement on the International Criminal Court. 

United Nations and International Institutions 

• Strong majorities of Americans favor giving the United Nations the authority to go into countries to investigate violations of human rights; creating an international marshals service that could arrest leaders responsible for genocide; having a standing UN peacekeeping force selected, trained, and com- manded by the United Nations; having a UN agency control access to all nuclear fuel in the world to ensure that none is used for weapons production; and giving the United Nations the power to regulate the international arms trade (though a slight majority of Republicans oppose this last proposal). 
• Sixty-seven percent think the UN Security Council has the responsibility to authorize the use of military force to protect people from severe human rights violations such as genocide, even against the will of their own government. 
• Americans support adding Japan (67%), Germany (66%), Brazil (53%), and India (53%) as permanent members of the UN Security Council, but are divided regarding the addition of South Africa (47% favor, 49% oppose). 
• A slight majority agrees that the United States should be more willing to make decisions within the UN even if this means that the United States will sometimes have to go along with a policy that is not its first choice. However, support for joint decision making with the UN is down 8 percent- age points from 2006, continuing a downward trend in support in recent years. 
• Majorities favor new international institutions to monitor the worldwide energy market and predict shortages, monitor compliance with climate change treaties, monitor worldwide financial markets, and provide information and assistance to countries dealing with large-scale migration. 

Peacekeeping 

• Large majorities favor using U.S. troops to stop a government from committing genocide and killing large numbers of its own people and to be a part of an international peacekeeping force to stop the killing in Darfur. 
• A slight majority supports using troops to keep a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. 

U.S. Leadership 

• Majorities believe the United States provides leadership in efforts to fight international terrorism, promote international trade, and at the United Nations, but attitudes are evenly split on the topic of climate change. 

Part II: Globalization, Immigration, Energy, and Jobs 

Anxiety among Americans over economic issues is causing a shift in foreign policy views and priorities. Energy is a major source of concern, along with jobs and the distribution of income and wealth. These concerns are negatively impacting views of globalization, immigration, NAFTA, and the economic future of the United States. Americans believe the solution to these economic problems lies at home. 

Overall 

• Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe the distribution of income and wealth in the United States has recently become less fair, and most of those who say the distribution of income and wealth has become less fair indicate that globalization and international trade are either very important or somewhat important in causing the change. 
• A majority believes the next generation of Americans will be economically worse off than today’s working adults. 
• An exceptional majority favors fixing pressing problems at home rather than addressing challenges to the United States from abroad. 
• Strong majorities believe investing in renewable energy, improving border security, improving public education, and reducing federal budget deficits are very important to the United States remaining competitive in the global economy. 
• Less than one-third think that continuing high levels of legal immigration and supporting open trade around the world are very important to the United States remaining competitive in the global economy. 

Globalization 

• A majority of Americans still think globalization, especially the increasing connections of our economy with others around the world, is mostly good for the United States, although this is down slightly in comparison to previous polls. 
• The minority of Americans who believe globalization is mostly bad has been steadily growing. 
• Forty percent believe economic globalization is occurring too quickly, while 57 percent disagree (39 percent say it is happening at the right pace, and 18 percent say it is happening too slowly). 
• Majorities believe globalization is bad for the job security of American workers and creating jobs in the United States. 
• Protecting the jobs of American workers remains a very important goal for most Americans. 
• Majorities believe globalization is good for consumers, for American companies, and for their own standard of living. 
• Americans are divided on whether globalization is good or bad for the next generation. 
• A strong majority of the public is against allowing foreign government investors to invest in U.S. companies and banks. 

Energy 

• Very strong majorities think that securing adequate supplies of energy is a very important foreign policy goal and that disruption in the energy supply is a critical threat. 
• A majority of Americans now favor the use of U.S. troops to ensure the oil supply, a large increase from 2006. 
• Nearly three-quarters say investing in renew- able energy is very important to the United States remaining competitive with other countries in the global economy, placing this first out of nine items asked about. 

Immigration 

• Forty-six percent of Americans favor decreasing legal immigration, with 39 percent preferring to keep it at present levels and only 15 percent favoring an increase. 
• Majorities of the public think immigration is bad for job security, for creating jobs in the United States, for the U.S. economy, for the country as a whole, for their community, and for their stan- dard of living. Opinion is divided on whether it is good or bad for U.S. companies. 

NAFTA 

• Majorities believe NAFTA is bad for the U.S. economy and the job security of Americans (both higher than in 2004), although majorities still think NAFTA is good for consumers and the Mexican economy. 

Federal Government Programs 

• Americans continue to support spending on domestic programs over foreign aid programs. 
• Large majorities favor expanding health care pro- grams, Social Security, and aid to education. 
• Slight majorities also favor expanding programs for improving public infrastructure such as highways, bridges, and airports, and expanding homeland security. 
• Majorities favor cutting back military and eco- nomic aid to other nations. 
• Views are mixed on defense spending and on gathering intelligence information about other countries. 

Effects of the Financial Crisis 

• The results of a small, September follow-up sur- vey of key economic questions from the July survey broadly confirmed the overall trends identified in July and outlined in this report. 
• The one exception was a sharp decline in the number who see improving America’s standing in the world as a very important foreign policy goal (see Appendix A for a more detailed analysis of the September follow-up survey). 

Part III: China’s Rise 

Americans now clearly perceive China as a rising global power, with profound consequences for the United States. For the first time, a plurality of the public is aware of the financial imbalance between the United States and China, and there is a general consensus among Americans concerning China’s increased importance and influence in the world. There is a segment of the public that feels threatened by China’s rise, especially in the realm of eco- nomics. However, the public opposes active efforts to limit China’s rise. 

Overall 

• Nearly two-thirds oppose active efforts to limit China’s rise, instead favoring friendly cooperation and engagement. 
• A slight majority considers China very important to the United States. Only Canada and Britain are perceived as very important by more Americans. 
• China rates as the second most influential country in the world after the United States, ahead of Great Britain, the European Union, Japan, and Russia. 

Awareness of the Rise of China 

• For the first time, a plurality of Americans now know that China loans more money to the United States than the United States loans to China. 
• Three-quarters now believe China’s economy will someday grow to be as large as the U.S. economy, up considerably from 2006. 
• Two-thirds believe that “another nation” (presumably China) will become as powerful or will surpass the United States. 

Economic and Geopolitical Concerns Regarding China 

• Two-thirds say that China practices unfair trade (up from 2006). 
• China is the only one of six major U.S. trading partners that a majority of Americans now see as an unfair trader. 
• A rather large minority of Americans (40%) see the development of China as a world power as a critical threat to the vital interests of the United States. 

Policy Responses to China’s Rise 

• A majority opposes using U.S. troops if China invaded Taiwan—the only scenario out of six presented that a majority opposes. In addition, very few Americans see confrontation between China and Taiwan as a critical threat. 
• Americans show little support for making greater economic sacrifices than China or India in a new climate change treaty, and a slight majority opposes providing technological and financial aid to help China and India limit the growth of greenhouse gas emissions. 

Part IV: U.S.–Japan Relationship 

The American public continues to see Japan as an influential partner in the international system. Rather than causing “Japan passing,” the rise of China’s power is increasing the importance of the U.S.–Japan alliance in the view of the American public. Americans see Japan as an economic friend now that China has taken on the mantle of the Asian economic threat. While Americans see Japan as influential and important, they also want Tokyo to do more to contribute to international security. 

Overall 

• Japan rates in the top four countries in terms of importance to the United States (behind Britain, Canada, and China and ahead of fourteen other countries, including Israel, Germany, Saudi Arabia, and Russia). 
• A slight majority of Americans say China is more important to the vital interests of the United States than Japan. 
• Americans have much warmer, more favorable overall feelings toward Japan than China. 

Sources of Japan’s Influence 

• Japan is considered quite influential in the world, although slightly less so in comparison to China. 
• Two-thirds of Americans think technological innovation is a very important source of Japan’s influence, while nearly half say Japan’s economic power is important to its influence. 
• Other factors are viewed as less important to Japan’s influence, including its leadership in Asia, its democratic system, its economic assistance to other countries, and its military strength. 

Importance of U.S.–Japan Alliance in Light of China’s Rise 

• A slight majority believes that the United States and Japan should work together to limit the rise of Chinese power in the years ahead. 
• Fifty-four percent of Americans prefer to make no change in its alliance with Japan rather than seek to strengthen the alliance to offset China’s power (32% prefer the latter). 
• Two-thirds agree that because of China’s grow- ing military power and the threat from North Korea, Japan needs to be freer to project its own military power. 
• Half also agree that a Japanese military buildup would probably lead to an arms race with China and be destabilizing for Asia. 
• Strong majorities favor Japan taking a more active military role, including independent combat missions consistent with international law, just like any other country. 

Japan and Nuclear Weapons 

• An exceptional majority of Americans are opposed to Japan’s possession of nuclear weapons. 
• Americans do not see any positive benefits from possible Japanese development of nuclear weapons. Strong majorities agree that it would encourage other countries such as Iran to develop nuclear weapons and would create the possibility of a rivalry with China that could escalate into a nuclear war. A majority believes that Japanese development of nuclear weapons would not reduce the U.S. burden of defending Japan.