"This is a very deeply unpopular war," Council President and CEO Leslie Vinjamuri says of the widening Iran conflict. "If we see boots on the ground, if we see high-risk operations undertaken, I think that will really galvanize Congress and the American public."
"Military morale, alliances, and Washington’s global standing are all at stake in how Trump navigates the bind," Council Lester Crown Senior Nonresident Fellow Suzanne Nossel writes.
"Europe is clearly not happy. It's not a war that they were consulted about. It's not a war that they've chosen," says Council President and CEO Leslie Vinjamuri.
"It really puts Europe in a difficult position. On the one hand, they're frustrated that they've been left out in the cold for this entire operation," says Council Distinguished Nonresident Fellow Julianne Smith. "On the other hand, . . . they're also recognizing that they need the strait to be open."
Robert Pape joins the 2026 cohort of Emerging Leaders to examine the tradeoffs inherent in deploying force and explore the limits of military power in shaping political outcomes.
The US-led postwar international order is being tested in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz and in the shrewd calculations of governments from New Delhi to Helsinki.
The widening conflict in the Middle East underscores the recurrent vulnerability of fossil fuel energy systems—and why a pivot to renewables is critical.
"The conditions that typically produce short wars—a decisive military advantage, an adversary willing to negotiate, and a clear political end game—are conspicuously absent in this conflict," Council Senior Nonresident Fellow Paul Poast and Pegah Banihashemi write.
"America's allies and partners were not asked to come along until after the strikes began. There was no real process in building a consensus," Council President and CEO Leslie Vinjamuri said. "Now they're scrambling."
