The American Political Environment Is Ripe for a New Foreign Policy Vision

In a major new report, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs documents a troubling rise in polarization in American public opinion on key foreign policy issues including immigration, climate change, and Israel. This growing division has been fueled by an increasingly partisan style of American politics. As more elected officials have treated foreign policy solely as a political battleground, they have emphasized differences between the parties, and this amplification of differences has fueled more polarized public attitudes.

Yet the Council’s public opinion data also reveal important limits to polarization and to the ability of US leaders to shape the views of the American public. Despite US President Donald Trump’s control of the bully pulpit, many Republican voters retain attitudes on many issues that differ from Trump’s positions. As a result, there remain significant reservoirs of cross-party agreement between Democratic and Republican members of the public on foreign policy, as well as a strong base of public support for an approach to world affairs that is more cooperative than Trump’s agenda.

Overall, the Council’s data offer a mixed story when it comes to partisan breakdowns in public views on foreign policy. On the one hand, some issues are now marked by strikingly large partisan splits. For instance, gaps of more than 40 percentage points now separate the shares of Democrats and Republicans who consider climate change to be a critical threat or think undocumented immigrants should be required to leave the country. Trump’s nativist rhetoric has clearly driven some of the strong public polarization on immigration, as the gap between Democratic and Republican views on immigration grew rapidly once Trump adopted a hardline stance on the issue during his 2016 presidential campaign.

On the other hand, differences between Democratic and Republican attitudes on other important foreign policy issues remain minimal. Even after a decade of Trump maligning many US allies, large majorities of Democratic and Republican members of the public believe that US alliances in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East benefit the United States. Equally striking, despite years of Trump lambasting liberalized trade, large majorities of Democrats and Republicans think that globalization is mostly good for the United States. And even though Trump has repeatedly praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and sought to negotiate a Russia-Ukraine peace deal on terms that would be favorable to Russia, the vast majority of Democrats and Republicans continue to view Russia very unfavorably, with about half of Republicans thinking the United States should continue providing arms to Ukraine.

Trump has also struggled to bring the public on board with important elements of his “Donroe Doctrine,” or effort to control the Western Hemisphere. An AP-NORC poll taken after the US military removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power found that 56 percent of Americans think Trump has “gone too far” in using the military to intervene in other countries. Similarly, a recent Council poll found 85 percent of Americans oppose using military force to make Greenland part of the United States. These public views are contributing to bipartisan support in Congress for legislation that would prohibit the use of force against Greenland or any territory of a NATO member state.

In short, when it comes to public attitudes on foreign policy, Trump’s impact has been limited. While he has moved Republican voters to the right on immigration, he has failed to persuade most Republicans to support other central aspects of his “America First” agenda. At the same time, Trump’s destructive attacks on the international order appear to have led Democrats and Independents to gain more appreciation for international cooperation. In the Council’s recent survey, 74 percent of Democrats and 60 percent of Independents said the United States should consult with its major allies before making major foreign policy decisions, up from 67 percent and 56 percent, respectively, in 2020, and 53 percent and 50 percent, respectively, in 1974 (the Council’s first survey year).

These views suggest the American political environment is ripe for a foreign policy vision that differs from that of Trump. Specifically, majorities of Americans, including many Republicans, recognize the value of international partnerships and want to avoid pushing the world into greater disarray. A foreign policy agenda that foregrounds cooperation with allies and the protection of fundamental international norms will therefore have broad appeal.

To be sure, most Americans also want to be assured that our leaders are prepared to use any instrument of US power to address real threats when they emerge. But Americans are showing that, even within our contemporary media environment of polarizing echo chambers, they can distinguish between sensible and foolhardy foreign policy actions. This key reality creates an opportunity for America’s future leaders to develop smart new foreign policy agendas that guide the country away from Trumpism, help reset international politics, and attract public support.