"The strike that killed Khamenei also wiped out a lot of the potential candidates or people that they thought would be the next in line," Council Senior Nonresident Fellow Paul Poast says. "There's still an immense amount of uncertainty."
"If the ambition is regime change, the means that are being used certainly are insufficient to achieve that," Council President and CEO Leslie Vinjamuri says. "Iran has been succession planning for a very long time."
"The markets can take it for a short amount of time," Council Senior Nonresident Fellow Rachel Bronson says. "Beyond that—very difficult. Prices will increase, [and] people will feel it at home."
US President Donald Trump has called for regime change, the destruction of Iranian military capability, and the degradation of proxy groups. But an operation with multiple goals carries greater risk.
"It looks like the very motivation that led the US to enter the war in Iraq is now in play with Iran," Council Senior Nonresident Fellow Paul Poast says.
With the death toll rising in Iran amid a crackdown on protests, US President Donald Trump is weighing a strike against the nation. Iran’s capacity to respond to such an action is far more limited than its leaders suggest.
"When combined with economic desperation, political exhaustion appears to be pushing parts of society toward alternative visions of order and stability," Council Nonresident Senior Fellow Saeid Golkar writes with Jason M. Brodsky.
