"A two-week ceasefire is going to be very unstable," Council Lester Crown Senior Nonresident Rachel Bronson says. "You need to have some stability for tankers to move in and out, so anything that threatens that will continue this crisis and keep energy prices high."
"The US has achieved a type of tactical victory," Council Senior Nonresident Fellow Paul Poast says. "But the terms that are on the table right now would put Iran in a position to be able to control the Strait of Hormuz and actually be in a stronger position than they were even prior to the war."
"Ceasefires are incredibly precarious," says Council President and CEO Leslie Vinjamuri. "But it does give at least a pause—at least a window—to try and push forward more of a negotiation, especially on the question of the nuclear conditions."
As the conflict in the Middle East escalates, Council President and CEO Leslie Vinjamuri joins Bloomberg Open Interest to discuss the reasons why a cease-fire with Iran remains unlikely.
While the Trump administration's proposed agreement would curtail Tehran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon, it would not touch the real drivers of the Islamic Republic’s power.
"Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz do not remain confined to shipping lanes—they propagate through agricultural systems worldwide," Council Distinguished Fellow Ertharin Cousin writes.
“I had never seen the Middle East as chaotic, as dangerous, as spiraling out of control as it is today.” Fawaz Gerges on why he believes the region is entering a much more dangerous phase.
" Even talking about the US formally leaving or just slowly disengaging sends a very dangerous signal to Moscow," Council Distinguished Nonresident Fellow Ambassador Julianne Smith said of President Trump's remarks about withdrawing from NATO.
