The US-led postwar international order is being tested in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz and in the shrewd calculations of governments from New Delhi to Helsinki.
The widening conflict in the Middle East underscores the recurrent vulnerability of fossil fuel energy systems—and why a pivot to renewables is critical.
"The conditions that typically produce short wars—a decisive military advantage, an adversary willing to negotiate, and a clear political end game—are conspicuously absent in this conflict," Council Senior Nonresident Fellow Paul Poast and Pegah Banihashemi write.
"America's allies and partners were not asked to come along until after the strikes began. There was no real process in building a consensus," Council President and CEO Leslie Vinjamuri said. "Now they're scrambling."
"With the sanctions against Russia, it adds to the concern about scarcity of oil," says Council Distinguished Nonresident Fellow Lord Jim O'Neill. "It's not surprising that the markets are freaked out about this."
"To see that a new leader has emerged that has a strong intention to strike American bases, to keep American interests out of the region, that is a very tough message," says Council President and CEO Leslie Vinjamuri.
As the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran and the conflict intensified, global leaders gathered in New Delhi to debate what comes next. Harsh Pant and Karim Haggag share the takeaways.
"There’s a real ambiguity here: How closely are the United States and Israel aligned right now?" says Council President and CEO Leslie Vinjamuri. "If the United States were to decide ‘game over, we’re done, we’re sort of withdrawing,’ it’s not at all clear that Israel will follow suit."
"It's absolutely critical that the president speak as a leader, that he accept responsibility, that he apologize, and that he articulate to the American people and to his own troops what's being done to rectify this so that it doesn't happen again," says Council President and CEO Leslie Vinjamuri.
"His elevation sends the clearest possible message to Iranian society, to the region, and to the outside world that the Islamic Republic is no longer even pretending to renew itself," Council Senior Nonresident Fellow Saeid Golkar writes.
