Trump's Election Victory: Reactions, Implications, and Expectations

While we encourage you to watch or listen to the episode (and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts!), these are Ivo's top takeaways from today's discussion:

• How did this happen? How could someone counted out from politics on January 7, 2021, after instigating an insurrection, return to power four years later? The search for explanations will go on for a long time. Clearly, the same anti-incumbency mood that felled many other governments in elections this year also brought Kamala Harris’s short-lived bid to be the first sitting vice president to succeed a sitting president since 1988 to a crashing halt. Inflation and immigration played big roles in that. What economist (and Biden) missed, but Trump did not, is that what matters politically isn’t the current annual rate of inflation but the cumulative increase—25 percent over the last few years. Susan also argued that the Democratic party made big mistakes. It discounted Trump’s ability to recover politically for too long. Biden miscalculated in seeking a second term after having visibly aged. The White House was staffed with people unable or unwilling to tell the president the truth—that he was too old to run again. And the party as a whole got the electorate wrong. Voters didn’t care so much about the future of democracy or the threat Trump might represent. They wanted answers to rising prices and open borders, and Trump gave that to him in ways Biden and Harris could not. And, yes, there was also a good deal of misogyny. Trump ran the most anti-women campaign possible—his son and chief aide even tweeted in the last hour for MEN to go and vote, not Americans, just American men.
• Why it matters? James pointed out the big politics is back. For the first time in long while, politics is about big issues: Does capitalism still deliver for the people? Does democracy still offer the best way to address real problems? Who will keep us safe? Trump’s campaign provided an all-encompassing answer—as his rally banners screamed: “Trump will fix it.” Even if how remains the question. Peter noted the tariffs were more likely to make the problems worse than better. Deregulation may help businesses grow, but it can also easily lead to corruption. Trump’s billionaires—led by a triumphant Elon Musk—are already flying to Mar-a-Lago and will soon set up shop in DC to lobby government. Susan reminded us that his rich supporters weren’t backing Trump for tax cuts—what they want most is for their businesses to thrive with government getting out of the way and footing the bill.
• The world itself will have to adjust to a new reality. For me, Trump’s return signals the end of the Pax Americana—a global system ordered and organized for 80 years around the idea of US global leadership. Susan warned that allies would no longer be able to rely on Washington to underwrite their security; they would be on their own. Peter warned that the biggest immediate issue is the Middle East, which is in a hot war. Trump will likely return to his “maximum pressure” policy against Iran; except this time Benjamin Netanyahu may push for military pressure that extends to the Iranian nuclear program and even the regime itself. James wondered how Trump would deal with the new reality of North Korean troops now helping Russia in its war against Ukraine. So many questions. So few answers.

That’s it for Ivo's quick takes of this week’s episode. To get the full flavor, please watch or listen to the episode.