THAAD (Briefly) Enters the South Korean Presidential Debate

The South Korean presidential race has lacked substance, with foreign policy conspicuously absent from the campaign. But for a brief moment, foreign policy came to the fore in the first presidential debate when conservative Yoon Seok-yeol proposed installing a second Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in South Korea. 

The absence of foreign policy isn’t really a surprise. The Korean public remains focused on real estate policy, and for good reason. President Moon will finish his term with the highest approval rating of any democratically elected South Korean president, but as Gallup Korea polling shows, the number one reason for disapproval of his job performance is real estate policy. And in polling from Research and Research, half of the public (50%) put real estate policy as the number one priority for the next president. North Korea policy (10%) was a distant second, along with managing government personnel (9%) and coronavirus policy (9%).  

But THAAD—the US missile defense system currently in operation in Korea—has been a lightning rod for controversy. Thus, Yoon’s call for a second battery to defend Seoul raises a long list of questions. First among them: are additional THAAD batteries even available? The US army operates seven units, but the Missile Defense Agency was unable to complete the contractually obligated nine due to a lack of funding. How will the $800 million price tag look if China levies additional costs via unofficial sanctions as it did following the first deployment? Would THAAD even be effective in defending Seoul?   

Gauging public sentiment on the issue is difficult. Despite ongoing protests, surveys rarely ask about the THAAD issue because it’s not seen as a salient political topic.  

Following the presidential debate, a Global Research survey found in a poll sponsored by the local television network JTBC that the public was evenly split on the issue.  While 44 percent supported a second THAAD battery, 46 percent opposed.  

Unfortunately, the question’s wording makes the results largely unreliable as a guide on attitudes toward THAAD itself. The wording includes clear partisan cues by naming each candidate and describing their position (progressive Lee Jae-myung is opposed to a second THAAD battery). Thus, respondents simply align their answers with their preferred candidate. And that is reflected in the results. While 82 percent of Yoon supporters agree with a second deployment in line with Yoon’s position, just seven percent of Lee supporters say the same. Instead, 87 percent of Lee’s supporters oppose—in line with Lee’s position.  

For a brief moment, an important foreign policy issue gained salience and there was a window to raise the issue in public opinion polling. Sadly, the polling language let us down.  

As the election hurtles towards its conclusion, don’t expect foreign policy to suddenly vault to the fore. Unless, that is, North Korea undertakes a major provocation—and, no, missile launches don’t count. Instead, expect a further devolution into negative campaigning, sniping, and ugliness.