South Korean Public Ready to Call Trump's Bluff
If the president wants to wreck at least ten years of solid South Korean public support for the US-Korea alliance, he is already headed down the right path.
The US and South Korea
The United States and South Korea are currently negotiating host nation support for the 28,500 US troops in the country and negotiations are not going well. The Trump administration has demanded that South Korea double its contribution from $855 million each year, and there is speculation that President Trump will threaten to withdraw those forces if his demands are not met. The South Korean public is largely ready to call the president's bluff.
In a poll fielded in South Korea in late January by RealMeter, a majority of South Koreans (59%) oppose accommodating US demands on increased burden sharing support (26% are in favor). It is especially notable that there are virtually no significant divides across demographic groups. Pluralities—and majorities in most cases—of all ages, regions, ideological leanings, and party affiliations are in opposition to Seoul giving in to US demands. The lone outlier are supporters of Liberty Party Korea, the main conservative opposition party. Even there, 45 percent support giving in to US demands versus 39 percent who oppose.
Question: Should South Korea accommodate US demands to increase the share of defense costs? (%)
| Favor | Oppose | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26 | 59 | |
| Age | 20s | 33 | 48 |
| 30s | 25 | 61 | |
| 40s | 29 | 61 | |
| 50s | 26 | 64 | |
| 60+ | 19 | 58 | |
| Region | Seoul | 28 | 55 |
| Incheon/Gyeonggi | 22 | 61 | |
| Daejon/Chungbuk/Chungnam | 34 | 53 | |
| Gwangju/Chonbuk/Chonnam | 13 | 70 | |
| Daegu/Gyeongbuk | 22 | 59 | |
| Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam | 35 | 57 | |
| Ideology | Progressive | 19 | 70 |
| Mid-Roader | 29 | 62 | |
| Conservative | 34 | 50 | |
| Party | Democratic Party | 12 | 76 |
| Liberty Korea Party | 45 | 39 | |
| Bareunmirae | 18 | 60 | |
| Justice Party | 23 | 68 |
In the same survey, respondents were asked about their views if the United States played the “troop reduction or withdrawal card.” This only shifts attitudes slightly. A majority (52%) continue to oppose acquiescing to US demands even if the US threatens troop reductions or withdrawal. Support rises slightly to 31 percent. Again, opposition is largely consistent across age, region, ideological leanings, and party affiliations.
Question: Should South Korea accommodate US demands to increase the share of defense costs if the US plays the troop reduction or withdrawal card? (%)
| Favor | Oppose | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31 | 52 | |
| Age | 20s | 39 | 41 |
| 30s | 29 | 59 | |
| 40s | 34 | 54 | |
| 50s | 29 | 56 | |
| 60+ | 25 | 51 | |
| Region | Seoul | 32 | 50 |
| Incheon/Gyeonggi | 25 | 57 | |
| Daejon/Chungbuk/Chungnam | 30 | 52 | |
| Gwangju/Chonbuk/Chonnam | 17 | 61 | |
| Daegu/Gyeongbuk | 37 | 38 | |
| Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam | 39 | 52 | |
| Ideology | Progressive | 13 | 70 |
| Mid-Roader | 34 | 53 | |
| Conservative | 50 | 34 | |
| Party | Democratic Party | 10 | 71 |
| Liberty Korea Party | 57 | 27 | |
| Bareunmirae | 49 | 44 | |
| Justice Party | 22 | 73 |
From the outset of these negotiations, one of the worst possible outcomes was for President Trump to openly threaten a troop reduction or withdrawal if South Korea did not meet his demands. Doing so was widely expected to unite South Koreans across the political spectrum. Now we have data points that suggest this is precisely the case. If the president wants to wreck at least 10 years of solid South Korean public support for the US-Korea alliance, he is already headed down the right path.
Note: This post was updated to clarify question wording.