In Its 250th Year, the US Has the Opportunity to Lead

The United States’ 250th birthday should be a celebration of an extraordinary history and remarkable nation, and a time to reflect on America’s past and future. The reality, however, looks set to be somewhat different. America’s elites are intensely polarized. Midterm elections are shaping up to be disruptive as well as divisive, with many people expressing a lack of trust in the system's ability to deliver free and fair outcomes. Affordability has become the watchword of the day. And the majority of Americans do not think the country is heading in the right direction. Should it continue down this current trajectory, America will turn 250 with its citizens sitting on their respective sides of the aisle—and with only one side celebrating. 

US President Donald Trump’s moves to restrict civil society freedoms and crack down on illegal immigration have not abated. Partisan divisions on immigration policy are the largest ever recorded by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. What does this mean for the United States’ global role in the coming year? America’s influence is intimately connected to perceptions of its dynamic economy, thriving society, abundant freedoms, and insatiable sense of opportunity. Soft power—the power of attraction—has some obvious measure, with the chief among them being tourism and immigration, and the purchasing of American products another. The future of the first two is precarious; the third is being deployed as a coercive bargaining chip in bilateral security arrangements and trade deals. 

But even if US soft power is in decline, American leadership can still martial the United States’ vast capabilities to shape matters of war and peace, international trade and debt, public health, and more. The question is, how will the United States use this capability? Through releasing a new National Security Strategy, the Trump administration has signaled its plans. 

"While the 250th is certainly a time to celebrate (birthdays matter), a national conversation about America’s next steps is essential."

Dominance of the Western Hemisphere, strategic stability between the United States and Russia, and navigating China through some combination of economic competition and deterrence are priorities for the current administration. In fact, Trump seems more determined to cooperate with China than with Europe, where he instead aims to strengthen transatlantic ties with the right-wing patriotic parties challenging elected leaders in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Some of Trump’s objectives to further cooperation with China may bear positive fruit, as there is little to be gained from an all-out confrontation with China. With Europe, realistic engagement with political parties that have domestic resonance in their own societies could indicate a degree of pragmatism that would pay dividends should the goal be to address genuine social and economic problems, and not to unsettle democratic governments. 

That said, the United States should avoid a strategy that merely seeks to accommodate power or populism. Pragmatism and realism do not require retreat. Recent history suggests that when the United States leads on issues such as foreign assistance, for example, others follow. And when it retreats, others take cover. Child mortality campaigns, humanitarian relief, and extreme poverty initiatives will all face significant setbacks in the absence of US leadership. Wars will be harder to end and peace more difficult to sustain. In Gaza in particular, US leadership will be critical in moving beyond the ceasefire to the next phase. And when it comes to safeguarding the norm and status of sovereignty, the United States has a clear role to play in holding the line on Russia’s aggression. 

All of this means that America has an opportunity to lead in its 250th year, especially as it stewards the G20. International debt, poverty reduction, and other global goals are fundamental for Americans, even if they do not occupy the hearts and minds of most or dominate everyday politics. While the 250th is certainly a time to celebrate (birthdays matter), a national conversation about America’s next steps is essential. The Chicago Council on Global Affairs and many of our peer institutions were born out of a similar moment in the 1920s by internationalists who sought to productively channel US power beyond America's borders. It is time to return to our founding debate.