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Paul Heer

How to Understand the Crisis in Japan-China Relations

In the News
The National Interest
Paul Heer

China's response to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent comments on Taiwan is deeply rooted in history, Paul Heer writes.

Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a news conference
Eugene Hoshiko / AP
Global Politics

How Trump's Improvisational China Policy Is Impacting Trade, Taiwan, and Strategic Competition

Analysis
by Paul Heer

The recent Trump-Xi meeting resolved none of the underlying tensions between Beijing and Washington. It merely kicked the can down the road.

President Donald Trump, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping pose ahead of their summit talk at Gimhae International Airport in Busan, South Korea, Thursday, Oct. 30, 2025.
Mark Schiefelbein / AP
US Foreign Policy

Nuanced and Skeptical: How Do Chinese View US Rivalry and Russian, North Korean Allies?

In the News
South China Morning Post
Coauthors

“There was a lot more subtlety in the data with a plurality, 48 percent, saying that China’s interested in a shared leadership role,” Paul Heer said of the new Council-Carter Center survey.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrive at a military parade
Sergei Bobylev / Sputnik via AP
Public Opinion

China Is Not Seeking To Remake World Order

In the News
The National Interest
Paul Heer

"China’s goal is not to usurp the U.S. role ... but instead to increase its role relative to that of the United States in setting the rules," Paul Heer argues.

 Chinese President Xi Jinping stands during a welcome ceremony in Beijing
Mark Schiefelbein / AP
Global Politics

Intelligent China Policy: An Interview with Paul Heer

In the News
Un-Diplomatic
Paul Heer

Paul Heer weighs in on the Sino-US rivalry and the prospects of war over Taiwan.

a red door with dragon handles
Unsplash
Global Politics

The Diminishing Prospects for US-China Détente

In the News
The National Interest
Paul Heer

"Washington and Beijing, driven by false assumptions, will probably continue the cycle of interactive steps that risk escalating bilateral tensions," Paul Heer argues.

representatives from the US and China shake hands
Alexander F. Yuan / AP
US Foreign Policy

Heading toward War? Reevaluating Taiwan's Status Quo

In the News
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Paul Heer

Nonresident Senior Fellow Paul Heer joins an expert panel to discuss the underlying forces that will determine whether the Taiwan situation moves toward conflict or stability.

Paul Heer speaks via a Zoom call US Foreign Policy

Taiwan Seeks to Escape Its History

In the News
The National Interest
Paul Heer

Taiwan’s shift toward more explicitly nationalist politics has exposed serious contradictions in US-China policy, Paul Heer argues.

Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te delivers an acceptance speech during his inauguration ceremony in Taipei
Chiang Ying-ying / AP
Global Politics

What Does America Want from China? A Possible Partner

In the News
Foreign Affairs
Paul Heer

"There is ample evidence that Xi and the CCP are interested in constructive engagement and peaceful coexistence with the United States," Paul Heer writes.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi
Mark Schiefelbein / AP
US Foreign Policy

What the Ukraine War, Taiwan, and Gaza Have in Common

In the News
The National Interest
Paul Heer

"Washington’s denial—or revisionism—about US policies that helped to fuel current or potential crises only makes them more intractable," Paul Heer argues.

An American flag flies in a cloudy sky
AP Photos
US Foreign Policy