US Support for Israel Remains Steady as Israel and Iran Edge Closer to Direct Confrontation

Over a year after the October 7 attacks, the crisis in the Middle East continues to escalate, with Israel conducting a ground operation into southern Lebanon and Iran launching more than 100 missiles at Israel. However, polling released last week indicates Americans’ support for Israel remains steady, with only minor decreases in support for Israel since the war in Gaza began. Notably, this polling also shows little expectation for peace and a continuing worry about further expansion.

Pearson Institute/AP-NORC’s poll conducted September 12-16 (released October 2) finds little change in sentiment towards Israel and its war compared to their November 2023 and January 2024 polls. Three in four Americans (76%) consider Israel either an ally that shares US interests and values (40%) or a partner that the United States should cooperate with but doesn’t share its interests or values (36%). Views of Israel as an ally or partner have declined slightly over the past year, falling from 84 percent in November 2023 to 79 percent in January 2024 to 76 percent today. However, Americans are not more likely to say that the United States is too supportive of Israel (35%, compared to 37% in January and 32% in November 2023), and are less likely now to say that Israel has gone too far with its response (42%, down from 50% in January).

When it comes to the war in Gaza itself, a majority of Americans (52%) say it is either extremely or very important for the United States to negotiate a permanent ceasefire, consistent with polling over the past year (48% in November 2023, 53% in January, and 48% in February). This correlates with Pew Research Center’s poll fielded September 16-22 (released October 1), which finds 61 percent of Americans support either a major (24%) or minor (37%) role for the United States in resolving the war, up from 55 percent in February. However, the expectation for peace remains dim: two-thirds of Americans (66%) say lasting peace is either not too likely (37%) or not at all likely (29%).

Even though the escalation in the Middle East has been widely covered in the news, Americans remain more focused on domestic issues as Election Day approaches. A Marquette Law School poll conducted September 18-26 (released October 1) of registered voters in Wisconsin saw the war in the Middle East as one of the least important issues to them. Similarly, a New York Times/Siena Poll fielded September 21-28 (released September 28) of likely voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania found less than 1 percent of voters identified the ongoing war in the Middle East as the most important issue to their vote. This matches other national polls showing foreign policy issues as being low on voters’ priorities ahead of the November election. Depending on the other issues in play, between 1 percent and 3 percent of Americans say that foreign policy issues are the most important issue for them this election, per the YouGov/Economist poll from September 29 to October 1 and the Ipsos poll fielded September 16-22.

As polling conducted after the escalation between Israel and Iran begins to be released and tensions continue to rise, it will be vital to understand just how much these developments affect voters’ minds, especially as the election draws ever closer. However, early polling shows that foreign policy issues remain important—but not critical—to Americans’ voting intent.