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Middle East and North Africa

How Could Iran Happen? An Autopsy.

In the News
Foreign Policy
Ariane Tabatabai

"The administration gutted the country’s institutions, and the United States is left trying to bargain for an outcome worse than the prewar status quo," Council Vice President of Research for Security and Defense Ariane Tabatabai and Julia Curlee write.

President Donald Trump talking with White House chief of staff Susie Wiles as Secretary of State Marco Rubio listens during Operation Epicy Fury
Daniel Torok / The White House via AP
Geopolitics

The Next Defining Moment of the Iran War

Analysis
by Ariane Tabatabai

As the midterm elections approach, the Trump administration has realized its strategy isn’t working. Will economic measures succeed where military operations failed?

A woman waves an Iranian flag during a pro-government gathering at a square in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2026.
Vahid Salemi / AP
US Foreign Policy

Fighting While Talking: The Iran War Enters Its Bargaining Phase

In the News
Lawfare
Ariane Tabatabai

"A bargaining war turns on two quantities: what each side can threaten, and what each side can bear," Council Vice President of Research for Security and Defense Ariane Tabatabai and Lawfare's Julia Curlee write.

A man waves an Iranian flag during a pro-government gathering at a square in Tehran
Vahid Salemi / AP
Geopolitics

Trump Rage Erupts Over Iran as Aides Leak Embarrassing Truth: He Lost

In the News
The New Republic
Ariane Tabatabai

"[President Trump is] essentially taking Oman and lashing out at them because of the fact that he is unable to close out this war," Council Vice President of Research on Security and Defense Ariane Tabatabai shares on The Daily Blast podcast.

US President Donald Trump sits inside the Oval Office on July 24, 2026.
Rod Lamkey / AP
US Foreign Policy

The Gulf's New NATO?

Analysis
by Rachel Bronson

The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement is not just a response to Iran but the divergence between states over theories of power.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif pose after signing a trilateral defense agreement in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, Friday, Aug. 7, 2026.
Saudi Press Agency via AP
Geopolitics

Trump Says the US And Iran Have Agreed on a Deal

In the News
NPR
Ariane Tabatabai

"I think President Trump had overestimated how much he could achieve militarily. And I think Iran might now be overestimating what it can achieve diplomatically based on the cycle that we're in," Council Vice President of Research for Security and Defense Ariane Tabatabai tells NPR.

A woman walks past a mural depicting a US aircraft carrier under missile attack
Vahid Salemi / AP
US Foreign Policy

The Paradox of President Trump's Peace Project

Analysis
by Leslie Vinjamuri

Trump can disrupt wars and force pauses but has yet to close one. The gap is creating space for middle powers—and an opening for China.

 President Donald Trump signs the charter of his Board of Peace initiative at the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Jan. 22, 2026.
Markus Schreiber / AP
US Foreign Policy

What the US-Saudi Nuclear Deal Means for Global Nonproliferation

Analysis
by Rachel Bronson

Rachel Bronson explains how the deal's uranium enrichment terms and apparent bypass of IAEA oversight break from past US nuclear agreements—and what precedent that sets.

President Donald Trump speaks with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during the Saudi Investment Forum at the Kennedy Center, Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2025, in Washington.
Evan Vucci / AP
US Foreign Policy

The Shortcomings of US Transactionalism

Analysis
by Leslie Vinjamuri

America’s treatment of its allies is creating a gap that others will fill.

President Donald Trump walks through blue curtains
Alex Brandon / AP
US Foreign Policy

'Iran Is Turning to Old Tactics and the US Is Taking the Bait'

In the News
CNN
Leslie Vinjamuri

Council President and CEO Leslie Vinjamuri speaks with Christiane Amanpour about what options are on the table as the US-Iran ceasefire crumbles.

Christiane Amanpour and Leslie Vinjamuri US Foreign Policy