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Geopolitics

The Next Defining Moment of the Iran War

Analysis
by Ariane Tabatabai

Six months into the war against Iran, the Trump administration has realized its strategy isn’t working. Will economic measures succeed where military operations failed?

A woman waves an Iranian flag during a pro-government gathering at a square in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2026.
Vahid Salemi / AP
US Foreign Policy

The Wrong Way to Review US Force Posture in Europe

In the News
Defense One
Julianne Smith

Council Distinguished Nonresident Fellow Ambassador Julianne Smith notes that the US should review its European force posture based on security needs—not allies’ political loyalty—to protect NATO, deter Russia, and preserve readiness.

A U.S. Air Force Boeing C-17 Globemaster III T-1 flies over Owens Valley to Edwards Air Force Base, California Geopolitics

Rash: US Allies Are Assets. Treat Them That Way.

In the News
The Minnesota Star Tribune
Raymond C. Kuo

Vice President of Research for Geostrategy and Diplomacy Raymond Kuo asks, “If you’re not even willing to do an exercise with a country you’re formally allied to, are you going to show up when North Korea starts firing missiles at South Koreans?”

President Donald Trump meets with Kim Jong Un on June 12, 2018: Trump said earlier this week the U.S. would scale down its annual military exercises with South Korea in deference to his “very good relationship” with the North Korean leader.
Evan Vucci / AP
Geopolitics

Fighting While Talking: The Iran War Enters Its Bargaining Phase

In the News
Lawfare
Ariane Tabatabai

"A bargaining war turns on two quantities: what each side can threaten, and what each side can bear," Council Vice President of Research for Security and Defense Ariane Tabatabai and Lawfare's Julia Curlee write.

A man waves an Iranian flag during a pro-government gathering at a square in Tehran
Vahid Salemi / AP
Geopolitics

What Are We Fighting For?

In the News
Gloves Off Podcast
Julianne Smith

How can middle powers win without returning to globalization and the same old system? Council Distinguished Nonresident Fellow Ambassador Julianne Smith weighs in.

Stephen Marche and Julianne Smith appear in a split screen video Geopolitics

The Gulf's New NATO?

Analysis
by Rachel Bronson

The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement is not just a response to Iran but the divergence between states over theories of power.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif pose after signing a trilateral defense agreement in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, Friday, Aug. 7, 2026.
Saudi Press Agency via AP
Geopolitics

Lawfare Daily: Ukraine, Iran, Taiwan, and the Short War Illusion

In the News
Lawfare
Ariane Tabatabai

Council Vice President of Research for Security and Defense Ariane Tabatabai joins the podcast to discuss how the short war illusion is playing out today and how it could play out in a future conflict between China and Taiwan.

ships in the Taiwan Strait
US Navy via AP
Geopolitics

How America's Adversaries Have Stopped Fighting Alone

In the News
Time
Ariane Tabatabai

"Russian support for Iran in the war with the US was not a new development," Council Vice President of Research for Security and Defense Ariane Tabatabai and John Drennan write. "Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea had been deepening and widening their cooperation."

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrive at a military parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of Japan's World War II surrender
Kremlin Pool Photo via AP
Geopolitics

Trump Says the US And Iran Have Agreed on a Deal

In the News
NPR
Ariane Tabatabai

"I think President Trump had overestimated how much he could achieve militarily. And I think Iran might now be overestimating what it can achieve diplomatically based on the cycle that we're in," Council Vice President of Research for Security and Defense Ariane Tabatabai tells NPR.

A woman walks past a mural depicting a US aircraft carrier under missile attack
Vahid Salemi / AP
US Foreign Policy

Transatlantic Publics Lose Confidence That Allies Will Help in Event of Attack

BLOG
Running Numbers by Dina Smeltz

But both Americans and Europeans are hopeful that relations will improve in the future.

Two men walk past the NATO logo
Hussein Malla / AP
Public Opinion