Does Europe Need a Drone Wall?

“We must heed the call of our Baltic friends and build a drone wall,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in her September state of the union address, calling it “the bedrock of credible defense.” 

Her proposal has gained traction in recent weeks amid a series of drone-related incidents—including the temporary grounding of flights from Belgium’s Brussels Airport after drones were spotted in restricted airspace. As these incursions increasingly test the European Union and NATO’s defenses, the question of how to ensure European safety and security has taken on new urgency.  

Former US Permanent Representative to NATO and Distinguished Nonresident Fellow in Defense and Security Ambassador Julianne Smith spoke with the Council’s Christina Colón about the proposal’s feasibility, what it reveals about Europe’s current defense capabilities, and how nations can adapt as new technologies reshape modern warfare. 

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.  

Christina Colón: The European Union recently announced plans to build a “drone wall.” What exactly is a drone wall? How might it function? 

Ambassador Julianne Smith: The announcement that the European Union wants to build a drone wall is a bit deceiving, as it gives the impression that the European Union intends to build some sort of guarantee up and down the eastern flank to prevent any autonomous system from penetrating the airspace of European countries. There is no guarantee of building something on that scale. However, I think the instinct is a good one. The instinct is that Europe needs a much better way to detect, track, jam, and sometimes intercept the autonomous drones that we see flying into European airspace.  

The theory behind the case seems to be perfectly logical. And the need is real. In fact, I would describe the need as acute. But I think the image of a wall gives folks perhaps the wrong impression of what Europe is trying to build here. 

You said that the need is acute. What exactly is driving this initiative right now? 

The announcement made by Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Union, came just after we saw just under two dozen drones fly into Polish airspace earlier this fall. That particular incident created a tremendous amount of concern across not just Poland, but all of Europe. For that reason, Ursula von der Leyen obviously felt the need to suggest a concrete policy proposal that would prevent those types of incidents from happening in the future.  

Unfortunately, just a few days later, we saw other drone incidents in Europe. We had a situation where the airport in Copenhagen was closed. We had some drone incidents in Oslo, Norway. We've seen these incidents occur in Munich, Germany, and most recently in Brussels, Belgium. This is a situation that seems to be increasing in terms of the number of times that we see countries closing airports or airspace in certain parts of their countries.  

It raises two questions: One, who is behind this? And two, what can Europe do to cope with this type of challenge? 

Do you assess that these recent incursions into European airspace were deliberate or accidental? And if they were deliberate on the part of the Russians, what is their overarching goal? 

Without having any necessary intelligence to underwrite my theory, I do believe, given the facts, that Russia most likely was behind the incidents that occurred in Poland. We know that because the drones that were shot down and intercepted were from Russia. They were unarmed, very cheap drones. And we know their origin. 

There is an open-ended question that has triggered a debate across the alliance and that is, to what degree did Russia intend to send those drones into Polish airspace, or was it in fact an accident because the drones were targeting Ukraine? I think given the fact that they were unarmed and there were so many of them, that to me indicates that this was a test on the part of Russia. 

The other drone incidents that I mentioned in Denmark, Norway, Germany, and most recently, Belgium, I think are less clear. It's not at all clear where those drones originated from, so it's much more difficult to determine the intent and the source, and attribute it to a particular nation. More work needs to be done there to make some sort of clear case on those particular incidents. But in Poland, in my mind, there's no question that this was a test on the part of the Russian government. 

The European Union hoped to finalize plans for the drone wall at the last EU leaders' meeting, which was in October. We know that didn't happen. When is their next decision point? And what is the delay? 

EU leaders did come together last month to try and determine whether or not they could move on some sort of plan to deliver a drone wall by 2027. That was the stated timeline to create such an initiative. Unfortunately, when the leaders got together, there was a tremendous amount of disagreement. We saw, as reported, a number of countries in Europe—some of the bigger powers, the French, the Germans, the Italians—to a certain extent, really slow rolling this idea and, in some cases, outright opposing it.  

I think the concerns that those countries had were as follows: One, who is going to fund this drone wall? Where will the resources come from? Is this something that will be fully funded by the European Union? And, if so, through what particular initiative? Two, the question of who controls it? Who commands it? Is it driven simply by individual nation states? Will national governments put together a web of sensors, radars, and intercepts to go after these drones? Or will it be completely 100 percent controlled by the European Union, or perhaps by NATO or some other configuration of a coalition of the willing? The third question is the technical feasibility of it and the degree to which nations or institutions like the European Union or NATO actually have the technical know-how to pull this off. Because those questions were, in essence, left unanswered, the European Union was not able to reach a decision.  

EU members are coming together in December, and they will give it another go to see if they can help answer some of the questions associated—the legality of it, the technical details, the resourcing question, and the command-and-control questions. My guess is they probably won't be able to finalize a decision on this by December. But I do feel like many countries in Europe believe that the lights are blinking red and that this is a very real challenge that many countries in Europe have experienced. The urgency of this issue is ever-present and will certainly drive the debates going forward. 

You mentioned the urgency. While the European Union is debating the pros and cons of this drone wall, how have NATO and the European Union been responding to drone incidents to date? 

It's interesting. When the drones went into Poland earlier this fall, I was very impressed by the speed with which the NATO alliance reacted. We saw a number of NATO allies scramble jets. They had F-35s in the air very quickly. A number of allies contributed to that mission, and they were able to shoot down many of the drones that came into Polish airspace.  

On the one hand, you see speed, you see collective action, you see NATO responding in real time, and that's all very reassuring. What's not reassuring, or should be some cause for concern, is the fact that the NATO allies were using F-35s with missiles worth over $500,000. In some cases, some of these missiles are actually worth over a million dollars. They were using those types of costly assets to target a drone that was unarmed and made of Styrofoam. The estimated costs for some of these things range in the low tens of thousands of dollars, somewhere between $10,000 and $15,000 a piece.  

If you think about NATO allies using precious resources right now, expensive assets on these Styrofoam drones that aren't even armed, you do have to ask yourself the question, how cost efficient is this type of response right now? And isn't there a better, more cost-efficient solution readily available so that the Alliance does not have to rely on F-35s to go after drones? 

What are the next steps for this initiative? Is this something that the European Union and NATO could realistically put in place within the next few years? 

I think if the European Union or NATO, independently or together, put forward a concept for a web of assets that could fortify Europe's defense against autonomous systems like these drones that we've seen flying into European airspace, then I believe they could probably identify the resourcing and the technology. It would take some time to get at the governance and the legality questions, but I think this is something that the Alliance and the European Union could begin working on in the months ahead if they have the political will to make the decision to do it.  

Given the number of questions that still exist on this—and the open-ended questions about whether or not it will be the European Union or NATO in the lead—I don't foresee this happening in the short term. I don't believe it will happen within one to two years. But it could be a wonderful, shared project for the European Union and NATO. They both bring unique strengths. They could put resources toward this and build a web of capabilities that could help European states tackle this particular challenge at a really difficult time.  

Is it within reach in the years ahead? Absolutely. But there are a number of hurdles to leap over between now and actually establishing such a system. 

Beyond a drone wall, how can countries strengthen their defenses as new technologies continue to reshape modern warfare? 

The challenge of autonomous systems is very real. We’ve seen that up close and personal in the war in Ukraine. The Ukrainians are still battling innovative autonomous systems in the air and in the sea. And there are a number of undersea autonomous systems that are at play here as well. We've seen that for years in Ukraine. And we know that these autonomous systems will increasingly be part of warfare or even hybrid gray zone tactics to challenge and test the Alliance.  

To give credit where credit is due, we are seeing a number of individual nations invest more in autonomous systems. It has not happened overnight, but we are seeing added resources being allocated nation by nation. And we are seeing the technology become more and more innovative each month that ticks by.  

Will this be a future part of NATO work as it develops new capabilities in the Alliance? Absolutely. Will the European Union make more investments in this space or encourage its member states to invest in these capabilities? Absolutely. But I think it might be a little premature at this point to scale up to some sort of proper drone wall.