Survey: Americans Feel Economic Pinch of Trump’s Foreign Policy Ahead of Midterm Elections

October 1, 2026 — With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, new polling from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs finds Americans are making the connection between inflation and cost-of-living concerns and US President Donald Trump’s foreign policy decisions. 

The data is part of the newly released 2026 Chicago Council Survey, the latest report in the Council’s long-running study of American public opinion on U.S. foreign policy. The findings reveal most Americans believe the Trump administration’s foreign policy actions — including the Iran war and widespread tariffs — have negatively impacted America’s global standing, the national economy and their household finances. Further, majorities across the political spectrum believe leaders have not been paying enough attention to these critical pocketbook issues.  

“Foreign policy is not typically seen as a major factor in U.S. elections, particularly the midterms. This year is different,” said Dina Smeltz, Council managing director and chair of public opinion and foreign policy. “By disrupting some of the stability in traditional U.S. foreign policy stances, the Trump administration’s policies seem to have sharpened how Americans link U.S. actions abroad and their daily lives.”  

Key Data 

• Tariffs are deeply unpopular. Large majorities of Americans believe U.S. tariffs on imports have been bad for the U.S. economy (71%) and the cost of living at home (81%). While Democrats and Independents express negative views of tariffs across the board, Republicans are more divided: Six in 10 say tariffs have been bad for the cost of living in the United States (62%), but more than half say they have been good for the U.S. economy (56%). 
• Middle East conflict divides the partisans. Seven in 10 Americans think the U.S.-Israel-Iran war has not been worth fighting (68%), and the conflict has further soured public support for Israel. Nearly six in 10 Americans now favor reducing or eliminating U.S. military aid to Israel (56%), including majorities of Democrats (72%) and Independents (64%). Republicans continue to favor maintaining or increasing this support (68%).   
• Republicans stand alone on immigration. Two-thirds of Republicans view large-scale migration to the United States as a critical threat (67%), compared to just 29 percent of Independents and a record-low 10 percent of Democrats. Along these lines, 61 percent of Republicans favor expanding federal spending on immigration enforcement, while a majority of Democrats (68%) and a plurality of Independents (44%) say such funding should be cut back.  

For further analysis of how foreign policy is influencing the U.S. midterms, explore the full report and watch the related event. 

“In a critical election year, rigorous, fact-based analysis of where the public stands on key issues — from war and peace to trade to immigration — is tremendously important,” Council President and CEO Leslie Vinjamuri said. “The Chicago Council Survey offers vital insights to policymakers at home and abroad on how everyday Americans want the United States to engage with the world.” 

The most recent data were collected from July 10 through July 21, 2026, among a national sample of 2,304 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. The margin of error is ± 2.2 percentage points, including a design effect of 1.04. 

The 2026 Chicago Council Survey was made possible by generous support from Lester Crown and the Crown Family, the Dr. Scholl Foundation and Observer Research Foundation America.  

About the Chicago Council Survey  

The Chicago Council Survey provides the most comprehensive view of American public opinion on critical U.S. foreign policy issues, highlighting critical trends and shifts in thinking over time since 1974. The Council’s polling experts, their annual report and related topical briefs compose the Council’s most recognized area of research. A signature area of study under the Lester Crown Center on US Foreign Policy, the Chicago Council Survey provides the public with a mechanism for sharing views with politicians and decision-makers who each year cite the survey as a valuable resource for influencing policy debates.  

About the Council 

Founded in 1922, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs is a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization dedicated to increasing knowledge and engagement in global affairs. Our in-depth analysis and expert-led research influence policy conversations and inform the insights we share with our growing community. Through accessible content and open dialogue drawing on diverse, fact-based perspectives, we empower more people to help shape our global future. Learn more at globalaffairs.org.