"Everybody's incentive is for this to end," Council President & CEO Leslie Vinjamuri tells Times News. "But clearly both Iran and the leadership of the United States, President Trump, want to be able to frame this as a win—and they're struggling to see how they can do that right now."
A European-led international mission and the Gulf Cooperation Council are trying to determine who will guarantee openness and stability in the strait once the Iran war ends—and how.
"Much of what has occurred over the last month was forecasted in scenarios that have been tested and re-tested for decades," Council Vice President of Research and Senior Fellow Ariane Tabatabai and Elisa Ewers write.
"While everyone welcomes a cessation of hostilities, Trump’s half-baked approach to peacemaking may well be a recipe for more war in the Middle East," Council Senior Nonresident Fellow Suzanne Nossel writes in a new piece for Foreign Policy.
The US blockade of Iran's coastline raises concerns about a potential confrontation with China and others who have managed to get ships through the Strait of Hormuz, Council President and CEO Leslie Vinjamuri tells Bloomberg. "This is very unchartered territory."
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s deployment of religious rhetoric in the Iran war has come under increased scrutiny. What happens when the line between political conflict and religious warfare blurs?
"I want to know who the nuclear experts are that are going," the Council's Rachel Bronson said of the US delegation. "We're sending over novices at the moment, and that should give us considerable concern."
"A two-week ceasefire is going to be very unstable," Council Lester Crown Senior Nonresident Fellow Rachel Bronson says. "You need to have some stability for tankers to move in and out, so anything that threatens that will continue this crisis and keep energy prices high."
"The US has achieved a type of tactical victory," Council Senior Nonresident Fellow Paul Poast says. "But the terms that are on the table right now would put Iran in a position to be able to control the Strait of Hormuz and actually be in a stronger position than they were even prior to the war."
