What's at Stake in Israel's First Election Since October 7?

About The Episode

Three years after the October 7 attacks, RAND’s Shira Efron says Israel is “still in the trauma phase.” With the country now heading into its first national election since the attacks, what could the outcome mean for Gaza and the West Bank? Efron explains what’s at stake, why Israel is facing growing pressure at home and abroad, and whether a new government could put the country on a different path.

Key Takeaways

• Efron describes Israeli society as still being in a “trauma phase” three years after the October 7 attacks.  The October 7 attacks profoundly affected Israelis, while the devastation and displacement in Gaza have created trauma among Palestinians that is likely to persist for generations.
• The deeper challenges such as Israeli security, Gaza's future, the West Bank, accountability, and international relations will remain regardless of which government emerges. The significance of the election is that it could change the political space in which those questions are addressed.
• October 7 has reinforced Israeli concerns about security and the risks of territorial concessions, while also raising questions about whether military power alone can produce a sustainable political outcome.
• Efron points to Israel’s economic and institutional connections with Europe and the United States. Growing international criticism of Israel's conduct during the Gaza war therefore has implications beyond diplomacy as it affects foreign investments, political relationships, and Israel’s broader international standing.